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On Monday (June 30), spot gold (XAU/USD) traded around 3280 in the North American session and continued to be under pressure below $3300. As the US Independence Day holiday approaches, market trading tends to be cautious. At present, the "one great bill" pushed by US President Trump continues to ferment.
Although the bill barely passed the Senate over the weekend, the market's concerns about the expansion of the US fiscal deficit have intensified due to the inclusion of large-scale tax cuts and cuts in medical subsidies and green energy budgets.
In addition, this week, including the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ADP employment data and the early release of the non-farm payrolls report (NFP) will become the core drivers affecting the market.
The market expects that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in June will drop from the previous value of 139,000 to 110,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%. At the same time, the core PCE released last Friday is still at a high level, and inflation stickiness is significant. This series of factors makes the market highly sensitive to the outlook of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and also invisibly increases the safe-haven appeal of gold.
Technical side:
From the daily chart, gold has fallen into a clear downward trend after failing to break through in the early stage. Currently, gold is running in a typical descending triangle pattern, and the 3300 mark has become a key upper resistance level. Advertisement Highest Rated Brokers
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The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that gold has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band (3343) and is approaching the lower Bollinger Band (3265), indicating that short-term volatility is expanding and bears are dominating the market.
The MACD indicator DIFF line and DEA line are in a dead cross state, and the MACD histogram continues to expand the green column, reflecting the strengthening of trend bearish momentum. The RSI relative strength index remains at a low of 43.34, and has not yet entered oversold, but the downward space is still being released.
Analysts believe that the support below focuses on the 3230 line. If it is lost, the probability of falling to 3120 or even the previous low of 2832 will increase significantly. On the contrary, if the upper side cannot effectively recover the 3300-3330 range, the rebound height will continue to be limited.
Market sentiment observation
Current market sentiment tends to be cautious, and traders generally reduce risk exposure before important events this week. On the one hand, the market is still concerned about the long-term inflation risks brought about by the fiscal expansion policy of the Trump administration, which provides medium- and long-term bullish logic support for gold. On the other hand, short-term capital flows show that risk aversion has not yet significantly increased. Advertisement No need to download, immediately
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In addition, from the perspective of the interest rate market, as non-agricultural expectations weaken, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this year have increased. Analysts believe that if the employment data continues to be weak, the market will strengthen expectations for liquidity easing, thereby increasing the allocation value of non-yielding assets such as gold.
But at the same time, last week's PCE data was higher than market expectations, causing some funds to worry that the Fed's path to rate cuts this year may be further delayed, which has caused market sentiment to fluctuate.
Outlook for the Future
Bull Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the ADP and non-agricultural employment data continue to be weak this week, and Powell's speech is dovish, the US dollar is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the real interest rate will fall further, which will provide effective support for gold. Once gold re-stands above 3300 and breaks through the 3320-3330 resistance zone, it is expected to rebound in the short term to test 3350 or even the upper track of the 3420 Bollinger Band.
In the medium and long term, if the US fiscal deficit problem continues to ferment, coupled with the market's concerns about long-term inflation, gold still has the potential to challenge 3450 and the high point of 3499 above.
Bearish Outlook: Advertisement Top Rated Brokers
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On the contrary, analysts believe that if the employment data is stronger than expected or Powell sends a hawkish signal, the US dollar will rebound and gold may fall further below the key support of 3230. Once lost, technically it will open up downside space, with the target looking at 3120 or even the previous low of 2832.
At the same time, from a technical structure point of view, if the current descending triangle pattern is confirmed to break downward, it will strengthen the market's bearish trend, and the short-term and medium-term pressure will be significant. What stocks to buy next? AI computing power is reshaping the stock market landscape. ProPicks AI, a subsidiary of Investing.com, uses advanced AI technology to select a large number of stocks, which are gathered into 6 major investment portfolios to create champion performance. In the short period of time since 2024, ProPicks AI's AI stock selection model has discovered 2 stocks that have soared 150%, 4 stocks that have soared 30%, and 3 stocks that have risen by more than 25%. Which stock will be the next big bull stock to take off?
Although the bill barely passed the Senate over the weekend, the market's concerns about the expansion of the US fiscal deficit have intensified due to the inclusion of large-scale tax cuts and cuts in medical subsidies and green energy budgets.
In addition, this week, including the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ADP employment data and the early release of the non-farm payrolls report (NFP) will become the core drivers affecting the market.
The market expects that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in June will drop from the previous value of 139,000 to 110,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%. At the same time, the core PCE released last Friday is still at a high level, and inflation stickiness is significant. This series of factors makes the market highly sensitive to the outlook of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and also invisibly increases the safe-haven appeal of gold.
Technical side:
From the daily chart, gold has fallen into a clear downward trend after failing to break through in the early stage. Currently, gold is running in a typical descending triangle pattern, and the 3300 mark has become a key upper resistance level. Advertisement Highest Rated Brokers
Produced by 2 4.7★ 1 4.9★ 3 4.5★ Find a quality broker ➞ Third-party advertising. Not a product or recommendation of Investing.com. Click here to view the statement or remove the ad.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that gold has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band (3343) and is approaching the lower Bollinger Band (3265), indicating that short-term volatility is expanding and bears are dominating the market.
The MACD indicator DIFF line and DEA line are in a dead cross state, and the MACD histogram continues to expand the green column, reflecting the strengthening of trend bearish momentum. The RSI relative strength index remains at a low of 43.34, and has not yet entered oversold, but the downward space is still being released.
Analysts believe that the support below focuses on the 3230 line. If it is lost, the probability of falling to 3120 or even the previous low of 2832 will increase significantly. On the contrary, if the upper side cannot effectively recover the 3300-3330 range, the rebound height will continue to be limited.
Market sentiment observation
Current market sentiment tends to be cautious, and traders generally reduce risk exposure before important events this week. On the one hand, the market is still concerned about the long-term inflation risks brought about by the fiscal expansion policy of the Trump administration, which provides medium- and long-term bullish logic support for gold. On the other hand, short-term capital flows show that risk aversion has not yet significantly increased. Advertisement No need to download, immediately
Experience the 6.1-6.30 anniversary special offer, 58% off for annual payment,
68% off for half-year payment, 20% off for quarterly payment, and extra random
Give away the use time DuoPlus No need to download, immediately
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68% off for half-year payment, 20% off for quarterly payment, and extra random
Give away the use time DuoPlus Third-party advertising. Not an Investing.com product or recommendation. Click here to view the statement or remove the advertisement.
In addition, from the perspective of the interest rate market, as non-agricultural expectations weaken, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this year have increased. Analysts believe that if the employment data continues to be weak, the market will strengthen expectations for liquidity easing, thereby increasing the allocation value of non-yielding assets such as gold.
But at the same time, last week's PCE data was higher than market expectations, causing some funds to worry that the Fed's path to rate cuts this year may be further delayed, which has caused market sentiment to fluctuate.
Outlook for the Future
Bull Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the ADP and non-agricultural employment data continue to be weak this week, and Powell's speech is dovish, the US dollar is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the real interest rate will fall further, which will provide effective support for gold. Once gold re-stands above 3300 and breaks through the 3320-3330 resistance zone, it is expected to rebound in the short term to test 3350 or even the upper track of the 3420 Bollinger Band.
In the medium and long term, if the US fiscal deficit problem continues to ferment, coupled with the market's concerns about long-term inflation, gold still has the potential to challenge 3450 and the high point of 3499 above.
Bearish Outlook: Advertisement Top Rated Brokers
Produced by 2 4.7★ 1 4.9★ 3 4.5★ Find a Quality Broker ➞ Third-party Advertisement. Not a product or recommendation of Investing.com. Click here to view disclaimer or remove ad.
On the contrary, analysts believe that if the employment data is stronger than expected or Powell sends a hawkish signal, the US dollar will rebound and gold may fall further below the key support of 3230. Once lost, technically it will open up downside space, with the target looking at 3120 or even the previous low of 2832.
At the same time, from a technical structure point of view, if the current descending triangle pattern is confirmed to break downward, it will strengthen the market's bearish trend, and the short-term and medium-term pressure will be significant. What stocks to buy next? AI computing power is reshaping the stock market landscape. ProPicks AI, a subsidiary of Investing.com, uses advanced AI technology to select a large number of stocks, which are gathered into 6 major investment portfolios to create champion performance. In the short period of time since 2024, ProPicks AI's AI stock selection model has discovered 2 stocks that have soared 150%, 4 stocks that have soared 30%, and 3 stocks that have risen by more than 25%. Which stock will be the next big bull stock to take off?
Release time
2024-05-21 10:41:14